2010 Was The Hottest Year Ever
Don’t look now, but climate change is still real:
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) today announced that “2010 tied with 2005 as the warmest year of the global surface temperature record,” and 2010 is also “the wettest year on record, in terms of global average precipitation.” The year was by far the hottest during a La Niña cycle, during which the equatorial Pacific Ocean is unusually cold.
I seem to recall George Will and others getting very excited when 2006, 2007, 2008, and 2009 were all slightly cooler than 2005 since somehow that proved there was no warming trend. Oh well.
Comments
Fit to be tied
Category: The Basics
Posted on: January 13, 2011 2:10 PM, by James Hrynyshyn
So, 2010 is a statistical tie for warmest year on record. This from NASA's GISS and NOAA'sNCDC. Some AGW refuseniks might cling to the fact that the year just past was 0.018 degrees Fahrenheit cooler than 2005, but then you'd know they never bothered to take a stats class. As the GISS press release puts it:
We've also just come out of an unusually long "solar minimum," during which sunspot activity has been next to nil, a condition that otherwise could be expected to depress temperature on Earth.
[Graphic from a New York Times story.]
The interesting thing to me is that this is just what GISS chief James Hansen and many others have been predicting for pretty much the entire year, suggesting that our understanding of the global climate system continues to improve.
The latest prognostication from the usual suspects involves the assumption that a return of the warmer, El Niño counterpart of the same cycle, and the possible return of a more active sun, will help make 2011 warmer still.
The annual report from the other side of the Atlantic isn't out yet, although there's a good chance it won't put 2010 quite at the top of the list, because it excludes much of the northernmost reaches of the Arctic due to a lack of observations. NASA, by comparison extrapolates from the most northerly stations that do supply temperature data. And this year it was the Arctic's unseasonable warmth that helped make 2010 as hot as it was. In the Southern Hemisphere, for example, 2010 was only the sixth warmest, and the global ocean temperature managed to reach third place.
Regardless with what the Brits report, it has now been 34 years in a row that the global temperature has been warmer than the 20th century average.
NOAA: 2010 Tied For Warmest Year on Record
January 12, 2011
According to NOAA scientists, 2010 tied with 2005 as the warmest year of the global surface temperature record, beginning in 1880. This was the 34th consecutive year with global temperatures above the 20th century average. For the contiguous United States alone, the 2010 average annual temperature was above normal, resulting in the 23rd warmest year on record.
This preliminary analysis is prepared by scientists at NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C., and is part of the suite of climate services NOAA provides government, business and community leaders so they can make informed decisions.
2010 Global Climate Highlights:
Global surface temperature anomalies for 2010.
High Resolution (Credit: NOAA)
Combined global land and ocean annual surface temperatures for 2010 tied with 2005 as the warmest such period on record at 1.12 F (0.62 C) above the 20th century average. The range of confidence (to the 95 percent level) associated with the combined surface temperature is +/- 0.13 F (+/- 0.07 C).*
The global land surface temperatures for 2010 were tied for the second warmest on record at 1.73 F (0.96 C) above the 20th century average. The range of confidence associated with the land surface temperature is +/- 0.20 F (+/- 0.11 C).
Global ocean surface temperatures for 2010 tied with 2005 as the third warmest on record, at 0.88 F (0.49 C) above the 20th century average. The range of confidence associated with the ocean surface temperature is +/- 0.11 F (+/- 0.06 C).
In 2010 there was a dramatic shift in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which influences global temperature and precipitation patterns — when a moderate-to-strong El Niño transitioned to La Niña conditions by July. At the end of November, La Niña was moderate-to-strong.
According to the Global Historical Climatology Network, 2010 was the wettest year on record, in terms of global average precipitation. As with any year, precipitation patterns were highly variable from region to region.
The 2010 Pacific hurricane season had seven named storms and three hurricanes, the fewest on record since the mid-1960s when scientists started using satellite observations. By contrast, the Atlantic season was extremely active, with 19 named storms and 12 hurricanes. The year tied for third- and second-most storms and hurricanes on record, respectively.
The Arctic sea ice extent had a record long growing season, with the annual maximum occurring at the latest date, March 31, since records began in 1979. Despite the shorter-than-normal melting season, the Arctic still reached its third smallest annual sea ice minimum on record behind 2007 and 2008. The Antarctic sea ice extent reached its eighth smallest annual maximum extent in March, while in September, the Antarctic sea ice rapidly expanded to its third largest extent on record.
A negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) in January and February helped usher in very cold Arctic air to much of the Northern Hemisphere. Record cold and major snowstorms with heavy accumulations occurred across much of eastern North America, Europe and Asia. The February AO index reached -4.266, the largest negative anomaly since records began in 1950.
From mid-June to mid-August, an unusually strong jet stream shifted northward of western Russia while plunging southward into Pakistan. The jet stream remained locked in place for weeks, bringing an unprecedented two-month heat wave to Russia and contributing to devastating floods in Pakistan at the end of July.
U.S. Climate Highlights:
2010 average annual temperature ranks by state.
High Resolution (Credit: NOAA)
In the contiguous United States, 2010 was the 14th consecutive year with an annual temperature above the long-term average. Since 1895, the temperature across the nation has increased at an average rate of approximately 0.12 F per decade.
Precipitation across the contiguous United States in 2010 was 1.02 inches (2.59 cm) above the long-term average. Like temperature, precipitation patterns are influenced by climate processes such as ENSO. A persistent storm track brought prolific summer rain to the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Wisconsin had its wettest summer on record, and many surrounding states had much above-normal precipitation. Since the start of records in the U.S. in 1895, precipitation across the United States is increasing at an average rate of approximately 0.18 inches per decade.
The year began with extremely cold winter temperatures and snowfall amounts that broke monthly and seasonal records at many U.S. locations. Seasonal snowfall records fell in several cities, including Washington; Baltimore, Md., Philadelphia; Wilmington, Del.; and Atlantic City, N.J. Several NOAA studies established that this winter pattern was made more likely by the combined states of El Niño and the Arctic Oscillation.
Twelve states, mainly in the Southeast, but extending northward into New England, experienced a record warm June-August. Several cities broke summer temperature records including New York (Central Park); Philadelphia; Trenton, N.J.; and Wilmington, Del.
Preliminary totals indicate there were 1,302 U.S. tornadoes during 2010. The year will rank among the 10 busiest for tornadoes since records began in 1950. An active storm pattern across the Northern Plains during the summer contributed to a state-record 104 confirmed tornadoes in Minnesota in 2010, making Minnesota the national tornado leader for the first time.
Scientists, researchers and leaders in government and industry use NOAA’s monthly reports to help track trends and other changes in the world's climate. This climate service has a wide range of practical uses, from helping farmers know what and when to plant, to guiding resource managers‘ critical decisions about water, energy and other vital assets.
NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Visit us onFacebook.
* New information in this report: Based on requests from our users, NOAA is now making it easier to find information in its global State of the Climate report about ranges of uncertainty (“range”) associated with its global temperature calculations. NCDC previously displayed this information in certain graphics associated with the report, but it will now publish these ranges in the form of “plus or minus” values associated with each monthly temperature calculation. T
Fall of Roman Empire linked to wild shifts in climate
Centuries of unpredictable climate may have been partly to blame for the fall of the western Roman Empire. A detailed record of 2500 years of European climate has uncovered several links between changing climate and the rise and fall of civilisations.
Climate fluctuation was a contributing factor alongside political failures and barbarian invasions, says Ulf Büntgen of the Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research in Birmensdorf, Switzerland, who led the project.
Büntgen used tree rings to build up a history of European climate. Using nearly 9000 samples from oak, pine and larch, Büntgen and colleagues were able to reconstruct how temperatures and rainfall in western Europe changed over the last 2500 years.
Climate flips and Black Death
From AD 250 to 550, the climate flipped, from one decade to the next, between dry and cool, and warm and wet. "Such decadal changes seem to have the most impact" on civilisations, Büntgen says, because they harm agriculture but are not prolonged enough for people to adapt their behaviour.
The climatic turmoil coincided with political upheaval and waves of human migrations. By AD 500, the western Roman Empire had fallen.
In other notable periods, the relatively stable medieval society was characterised by more constant climatic conditions. But the Black Deathcoincided with a wet spell and the disease spreads faster in humid conditions
Cold wars
"Relatively modest changes in European climate in the past have had profound implications for society," says Michael Mann of Penn State University in University Park, Pennsylvania.
Other studies have shown how war and climate are often intimately linked. For example, periods of unusually cold weather in China during the last millennium preceded 12 of the 15 major bouts of warfare.
That said, it is difficult to draw conclusions for the present day from studies like Büntgen's. As Halvard Buhaug of the Peace Research Institute Oslo in Norway points out: "Modern societies are not nearly as dependent on the climate, because trade and technology can mitigate its effects."
Whether or not African civil wars today can be linked to modern climate change is the subject of intense debate.
Huge sample size
Büntgen and his colleagues used over 7284 oak tree samples from low-lying areas of France and Germany to obtain a record of spring rainfall, and 1089 Stone pines samples and 457 larches samples from high in the Austrian Alps to determine summer temperatures.
Others, including Mann, have used similar methods to put together detailed reconstructions of global temperatures during the last 100.... Going back 2500 years is "a very substantial contribution," says Mann.
Journal reference: Science, DOI: 10.1126/science.1197175
Wonkbook: 2010 hottest year on record; Obama speaks in Arizona; Fed's 'beige book' sees slow recovery
The president's speech in Arizona last night was, I thought, deeply affecting and quite beautifully written. But it will be well-covered elsewhere. And there's another story that deserves our attention: According to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2010 is tied with 2005 as the hottest year on record. Worse: That means nine of the 10 hottest years on record were in the last decade. And it's not just the Aughts: Global temperatures have topped the 20th century's average for 34 straight years.
There is no doubt, at this point, that we are leaving a warming world for the next generation. And this is not merely like leaving health-care reform undone, or infrastructure unbuilt: Those problems might persist, but they are not much harder to solve in 2020 than in 2010, or 1990. Climate change, however, doesn't merely persist. It accelerates. As the Earth warms, it burns through the protections -- like the permafrost covering the Siberian peat bogs and the ice caps cooling the Arctic -- that moderated temperature increases during our lifetimes. And the next generation doesn't get to call for a do-over. They just get a much harder problem to solve, and one that's much further along.
The Hottest Year
2010 tied the record. Deny this:
And Brisbane is now an underwater war zone and Brazil is grappling with mudslides of historic proportions. Ezra Klein warns:
Unpredictably.