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In the Gaian model, the world is maintained by an interlocking feedback system that puts a brake on drastic changes. Lovelock pointed to the role that plants play in the carbon cycle's planetary thermostat: When the planet warms, forests and phytoplankton suck carbon dioxide out of the air at a faster rate and create sheltering layers of clouds, both of which work to cool the planet. In a more familiar example from the animal kingdom, populations of predator and prey limit each other's sizes.
(Brian Stauffer for The Boston Globe)
While the Gaia Hypothesis may be the most explicit version, the idea of a self-regulating, counterpoised planet has been central to the thinking of conservationists and environmentalists, and to the policies they have helped to shape. Removing dams, fighting the encroachment of alien plant and animal species, restoring the Everglades, reintroducing wolves into the American West, all are justified at least partly because they help restore a balance that man has disturbed.
As Ward sees it, however, this is almost exactly backward. Looking at the evidence of past extinctions - written in fossils and in the chemical makeup of deeply buried rock sediments - as well as the workings of today's oceans, atmosphere, and myriad food chains, he finds evidence of a planet that tends not toward harmony but toward extremes. Although windows of stability are possible, they are simply respites between catastrophic boom-and-bust cycles. He attributes one of the largest extinctions in history to the out-of-control proliferation of plankton feeding on upwellings of nutrients from the ocean floor. Rather than being elegantly brought back to equilibrium, the tiny organisms reproduced until they choked off much of the life in the upper ocean. Exhausting their newfound food supply, they died en masse, and decaying by the trillions used up all the oxygen in the water, killing off everything else.
As for the earth's temperature control, Ward, drawing on the writing of the environmental scientist James Kirchner, points out that more often than not the thermostat seems to be hooked up backward, with warming triggering more warming, and cooling more cooling. In a process we're seeing today, as the planetary temperature rises, warming increases the rate at which soil releases greenhouse gases - not only carbon dioxide, but methane and nitrous oxide. It leads to more forest growth in places that formerly were barren tundra, even as more carbon dioxide in the air makes plants hardier and better able to grow in areas once given over to desert. More plants in more places means a darker earth, and therefore a more heat-absorbent and warmer one. It's an escalating feedback loop that becomes even more powerful as the planet's white, ice-covered poles give way to darker open water.